MOE Strategic Plan 2003-2007

Part 4: Feasibility of the Plan

The availability of financial resources is the central question for the implementation of this plan. The developmental needs of the country are many and varied: major spending is needed on infrastructure, utilities, and social services, and there are urgent calls to increase the budget for internal and external security. Education has however been maintained as a priority in spite of the increasing demands from every sector.

1. Government Allocations to Education, 1990 - 2000

From 1991, funding to education has increased steadily and expenditure on education as a percentage of the national budget and as a proportion of G.D.P. has also generally increased. Table 7 below shows allocations to education as a percentage of the national budget.

Table 7: Education as a percentage of the national budget (G$000)

Year	National Budget	Education Budget	Ed. as a % of the Nat. Bud.
1990	11,907,193	525,506	4.4
1991	12,793,000	832,610	7.1
1992	29,826,332	1,700,400	6.0
1993	30,194,677	2,225,146	7.3
1994	40,185,824	2,857,663	7.1
1995	40,077,495	3,267,287	8.1
1996	45,442,508	4,591,873	10.1
1997	56,958,277	4,939,375	8.6
1998	51,422,353	5,748,484	11.1
1999	54,568,995	6,828,412	12.5
2000	65,575,867	9,527,210	14.5

A steady decline in the exchange rate of the Guyana dollar and other inflationary trends have resulted in a decrease in expenditure on education in real terms in some years, but Table 8 shows that over the last eight years, expenditure has increased in both nominal and real terms, a fact which reinforces government’s commitment to education as a priority. Increased expenditure on education seems to be supported by all parties in spite of differences in approaches and strategies.

Table 8: Annual percentage changes in allocations to education in $US

Year	Education Budget	Rate of Exchange	Budget in US$	% of Change
1990	525,505	39.5	13,303.79	-
1991	832,610	111.8	7,447.39	-44
1992	1,700,400	125.0	13,603.20	+83
1993	2,225,146	130.2	17,070.21	+26
1994	2,857,287	138.2	20,667.73	+21
1995	3,267,287	141.9	23,025.27	+11
1996	4,591,873	140.2	32,752.30	+42
1997	4,939,375	143.6	34,396.76	+5
1998	5,748,484	150.2	38,272.19	+11
1999	6,828,412	176.2	38,753.75	+1
2000	9,527,210	184.7	51,528.07	+33%

2. Key Areas of Expenditure in the Plan

As pointed out earlier, at nursery and primary levels, access to education is not a serious problem: coverage at both levels is more than ninety percent. The problems of access are concentrated mostly at the secondary level and in what could be considered special services, e.g., schools for children with special needs. The major issue facing the MoE in Guyana is the issue of quality. Even in the hinterland and riverain areas the problem at the first two levels is not so much access to education as access to quality education. Most of the actions in this plan are therefore concentrated in the area of quality, and range from curriculum reform to the type of supervision and material and equipment support that schools receive in various regions of the country.

Four main areas will require substantial funding. These are:

1. Construction/Rehabilitation of Education Buildings (G$14.4 billion)
   
   The MoE has committed itself to reducing its backlog of rehabilitation needs and thereafter, to working to keep its physical stock in fair condition through a strong maintenance programme. This, together with the construction of new schools to achieve universal secondary education and the enhancement of offices and resource centres, will constitute the key item of expenditure. It should be noted, however, that most of the schools at the primary level are new or were renovated in the not so distant past, although there are still unmet needs. It is expected that support through programmes such as SIMAP and the Basic Needs Trust Fund will continue for at least another two or three years. It has already been indicated that a loan from the IDB will provide nearly 5000 new places at the secondary level.
2. Salaries (G$ 5.4 billion in 2002)
   
   In spite of substantial increases in recent years, teacher salaries continue to be a disincentive to encouraging people to enter and/or remain in the profession. The Guyana Government cannot compete with the salaries offered by some countries, but in addition to possible monetary increases, it is considering non-salary incentives such as land and loans for housing. The issue of teacher compensation however remains a challenge, as the level of teacher salaries cannot be totally divorced from the level of salaries in the rest of the public sector.
3. Equipment and Other Learning Materials and Tools
   
   The demand for equipment and other learning material or tools at all levels, in particular computers, is another major cost (over G$ 1 billion for innovative technology in schools and for the Ministry’s MIS). Assistance is forthcoming through some programmes, but in general, the MoE will give priority to the provision of reading material and then take an incremental approach to the provision of equipment. Whenever it is needed and wherever it is feasible, a cluster of schools will share expensive equipment
4. Human Resource Development
   
   Human resource development, in particular the training of teachers, will require increased financial resources during the plan period. Ongoing annual costs are currently over G$450 million and are estimated to rise to G$525 million by the end of the plan. In addition, nearly G$224 million is budgeted for this activity under phase 1 of the BEAMS project. As with the other areas, some assistance has already been negotiated for HRD but even more importantly, there is a firm basis to build on, in that the GUIDE and GBET programmes have given MoE considerable experience in training teachers via distance modalities. The curriculum created for these programmes and the support systems which have been developed are well-established, and except for the enhancement of some additional resource centres, the infrastructure for improved HRD is fairly well established. The unit cost for this kind of training should fall in the future.

3. Preliminary Estimates

The new education initiatives proposed in this plan, together with ongoing activities, are estimated to cost G$ 70.4 billion (approximately US$ 371 million) over the five-year period. Seventy-five percent of this sum (G$50 billion) is for recurrent estimates and twenty-five percent ($19.6 billion) for capital expenditure.

A ten percent increase in salaries is projected over the period and estimates for materials, equipment and supplies include an annual inflation rate of five percent. Recurrent expenditure will largely be financed from Government of Guyana resources, but some cost recovery or cost sharing measures will be actively considered in the next five years.

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B. FUNDING OF THE PLAN

1. GOG Funding

The GPRSP cites education as a continuing priority in the Government’s development policy and projects a substantial increase to education over the next five years.

The estimate of the Guyana Government’s contribution to available resources in 2003 is based on the actual sum the Government committed to education from national resources in 2002, i.e., it does not include external assistance. For three years, an increase of five percent is estimated based on the release of additional funds through the HIPC initiative, and the GOG contribution is then slightly reduced as the need for counterpart funding to some projects declines or comes to a halt.

2. External Assistance

In addition to the projected increase from GOG sources, the Ministry expects significant assistance to its the capital programme.

1. Over G$ 1.9 billion is already committed as a part of ongoing programmes. Included in capital expenditure is the funding for BEAMS which has recently been approved by the IDB. The IDB’s input to this project during this period is expected to be G$ 5.7 billion (US$ 30 million). The Government is also seeking to negotiate another G$ 2.85 billion (US$ 15 million) to fund technical and vocational education. Negotiations have not yet been completed for this project or for additional resources, about G$ 3.3 billion, to help with construction and rehabilitation of schools. These sums have however been factored into the projected available resources outlined in Table 9.
2. Guyana is one of eighteen countries eligible to participate in what is being called the EFA Fast Track Initiative which, in the words of the World Bank (coordinating agency on behalf of several bi-lateral and multi-lateral agencies), “is designed to channel increased support for primary education to countries with sound policies and strong domestic commitment to the goal of universal primary education.” Key features of the initiative are the offer of incremental funding which can be flexibly used for recurrent expenditures such as the hiring of teachers, as well as for capital requirements. It is expected that with the 2003-2007 education plan and the GOG proven commitment to primary education, Guyana can meet the criteria for accessing this fund.
3. The MoE also expects that the assistance given by the smaller bilateral agencies and agencies such as UNICEF, UNESCO, and the OAS will continue.

3. Possible Shortfalls

The projected assistance outlined above should allow MOE to fill gaps in GOG’s provision. However, even with committed and projected external assistance there are shortfalls in the available resources in the first three years, and these shortfalls will be greater if salary increases are more significant than the ten percent estimated. It should also be noted that in the event of unexpected challenges or shortfalls in financing, the strategic planning approach embedded in the 2003-2007 plan will enable the Ministry to make the best choices and to delay or fast track activities as appropriate. The annual action plans which are to be derived from the strategic plan will reflect these changes, and delayed activities can be rolled over to a subsequent year.

Year	Projected Available Resources	Projected Expenditure	Difference
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007	13,760,093 14,562,975 14,292,355 13,967,989 12,836,082	14,174,253 14,987,408 14,382,745 13,967,789 12,836,082	442,660 424,433 92,390 - -

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